Literature Review on Breast Reconstructive Surgery

Research is from the French word “research” which literally means to investigate thoroughly.
It is a process of systematic enquiry into a particular subject (phenomenon) which intends to create new knowledge and is governed by scientific principles (Cormack 1996). The department of health (DOH) defines research as: “the attempt to derive generalised new knowledge by addressing clearly defined questions with systematic and rigorous methods” (DOH 2005).

The Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC 2008) clearly states that nurses must deliver care based on the best available evidence or best practice. That any advice they give is evidence based if they suggest healthcare products or services and they must have the knowledge and skills for safe and effective practice.
Nurses are expected to practice within an evidence based practice framework by utilising current, reliable and valid research (Smith & Donze 2010). To achieve this, nurses should be familiar with the research process and how to incorporate findings into practice. Nurses who practice evidence based are fulfilling their responsibility to patients and their professional regulatory body.
Nursing research can provide a hugely exciting and challenging facet to the concept that is nursing. Being the largest workforce within the National Health Service (NHS), they are the professionals with the most direct contact with patients it stands to reason that this workforce should have robust evidence to support their practice interventions (Parahoo2006).
Patients can be asked to make decisions when they are emotionally fragile and thrust into an often unfamiliar world of doctors, nurses, hospital environments where the language used can seem unfamiliar. Working in the field of breast cancer can provide many opportunities to explore the experiences of women as they strive to make decisions about their physical and psychosocial wellbeing.
Making a decision to undergo a breast reconstruction following mastectomy due to breast cancer can be harrowing and efforts must be made to ensure healthcare providers afford the best opportunities that enable women understand this process.
A literature search using databases Medline, [email protected], British Nursing Index, Embase, CINAHL and PsycINFO was conducted to review previous research undertaken to determine influencing factors on decision making. The terms breast cancer, breast reconstruction, decision making, patient satisfaction and quality of life, Breast Care Nurse and Breast Clinical, Nurse Specialist were used.
Results were limited to the English language, relevant to humans.
Literature review
A literature review should provide a rationale for the study, show why the study is required and how it will add to the body of knowledge already known about the phenomenon. (Parahoo 2006, Cormack1996).
Adjusting to a diagnosis and the treatment options of breast cancer is a complex process (Brennan 2001). The process is influenced by numerous factors (Wenzel, Fairclough, Brady, Cella, Garret, Klushman 1999) and altered body image is one of the most significant (DeFrank, Mehta, Stein, Baker 2007). In the last few years there has been increasing attention paid to the role, perceived body image plays in patient’s, diagnosed with breast cancer has on this adjustment. Pikler and Winterowed (2003) prove that patients who essentially felt good about their body were more firm in their belief in their ability to cope with the disease and the subsequent treatments.
Women’s emotional and psychosocial functioning may be significantly affected when
Coping with a diagnosis of breast cancer, which may impair their decision making ability. Reaby (1999) supports this view suggesting “their ability to make an informed decision about breast restoration is greatly reduced because of the emotional and physiological conditions created by their health crisis”. Literature supports the process of breast reconstruction following mastectomy as increasing long term health and wellbeing (Streu, Chung & Alderman 2009). This assumption is refuted by Harcourt & Rumsey (2001) who suggest this belief is not supported by evidence and further inquiry is required.
However whilst there is much literature available highlighting the effects of timing of breast reconstruction, type of reconstruction (autologous or implant) and of the impact other treatment modalities may have on a technical success there is little robust evidence to support one method in favour of another in terms of quality of life or body image (Potter & Winters 2008) . Guidelines have been produced by The Association of Breast Surgery, The British Association of Plastic, reconstructive and Anaesthetic Surgeons and the Training Interface Group which recognised that it is difficult to conduct controlled trials in this cohort and hopes the guidance will provide standards for safe breast reconstruction following mastectomy for breast cancer (Lee & Bishop 2009). There remains a lack of consensus on when to perform the procedure, what procedure should be performed and which patients are/are not suitable to undergo the procedure. Without consensus guidance from professionals cannot be anything other than subjective and ultimately can lead to decisions which are not fully informed (Lee, Dominik, Levin, Barry,Cosenza, O’Connor, Mulley & Sepucha 2010). The authors of this study report on the necessity of tools to assess the quality of the patient’s decision making which will reflect shared decision making.
Quantitative studies
The reviewed literature highlights various findings on the decisions women make regarding breast reconstruction. Chevray (2008) suggests that women are not adequately informed about the availability of this option. Older age and the less educated are less likely to opt for breast reconstruction according to (Greenberg, Schneider, Ko, Lipitz, Mallin, Epstein, Weeks & Kahn 2007). Theses particular studies are American where the healthcare system is different from that in theUnited Kingdom. They were quantitative, retrospectively analysed from existing databases and neither study reflected the women’s personal experiences of the process they found themselves having to make decisions within. Limitations to the study such as women’s access to specialist centres for breast reconstruction and financial cost, if not adequately covered by insurance, which may have precluded them from breast reconstruction are not addressed in the findings.
Falbijork, Karlsson, Salander, Rasussen (2010) concluded similar results with regard to age but did not take into consideration the meaning of mastectomy or body image to women although recognise these variables should be considered. They conclude that age is of paramount importance for further studies to enable understanding women’s choices.
Stacey, Spring, Breslin, Rao & Gutowski (2008) reinforced the multifactorial nature of decision making regarding breast reconstruction following mastectomy for breast cancer. They evaluated the attitudes of circa 100 general surgeons to breast reconstruction; 40% did not refer all patients for breast reconstruction citing reasons which included refusal by patient, need for radiation treatment, may delay adjuvant oncological treatment, patient issues or the lack of available plastic surgeons. One of the conclusions they reached highlighted the need for education of the referring surgeon and patient about options and indications for reconstructive surgery.
A related study by Reefy, Patani, Burgoyne Osman & Mokbel (2010) reviewed 127 patients who underwent immediate breast reconstruction following skin sparing mastectomy for early breast cancer. The patients were followed up for 36 months the procedure was associated with low morbidity and deemed oncologically safe for T, T1 & T2 tumours without extensive skin involvement. It stated that 85% of patients who required either prior or post mastectomy radiation treatment underwent capsulotomy for significant capsule formation. In keeping with Stacey et al (2008) focus should be on the education of surgeons and patients on the effective, safest management of breast reconstruction to guide informed decision making.
Lee, Belkora, Chang, Moy Patridge & Sepucha (2011) evaluated patient decision making about breast reconstruction (BR) and patient involvement in the process and concluded that patients were not well informed about BR and as such would benefit from interventions which supported their decision making. Winters, Benson & Pusic (2010) systematically reviewed 1012 abstracts of which 34 papers included Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) outcomes in breast reconstruction. Their findings showed that robust scientific data is sparse in methodology on HRQoL studies and increasingly patients and healthcare providers seek meaningful information to guide decision making. They concur with Lee & Bishop (2009) that randomised clinical trials are required to establish guidelines to inform decision making.
Another study carried out by Jeevan, Cromwell, Brown Traveller Pereira, Caddy, Sheppard & Van Der Mullen (2010) identified that of 44, 837 women who underwent mastectomy for breast cancer, 7375 underwent immediate reconstruction. (IR) They showed that the uptake rate for IR was highest in the younger age group (<50 years of age) and lowest in those over 70 years, a finding which concurs with Greenberg et al (2007) & Falbijork et al (2010). Jeevan et al focused on the regional variations of IR uptake and showed that women from more deprived areas were less likely to undergo IR as were non white women.
This is direct contrast to Osborn, Hodin, Drew, Fielder, Vaughn-Williams & Sweetland (2005) who found no association between deprivation and ethnicity and treatment choice but did find older age as an indicator of being less likely to undergo breast reconstruction.
Qualitative studies
Qualitative studies have attempted to establish patterns in women decision making when considering surgical options. Reaby (1998) developed a decision making model hope to enhance decision making capability of the women. It seems to be designed to essentially slow down the women’s decision making to allow time for her to explore her understanding of the options that should have been presented to her, to alert that there may be options available and to explore the impact such decision making may be having on her and her family. The study Reaby conducted suggested that the specialist nurse was in a valuable position to undertake the role of providing physiological and psychological support, acting as their advocate thus enhancing the decision making process.
Harcourt & Rumsey (2001) conducted a literature review identified the need for further research into the experiences of women deciding for or against reconstruction and the process by which they decide. They highlight that studies in their review did not take cognisance of the nurse specialist. They identified the drawback of randomised controlled trials citing them as inappropriate in this area, and suggest that research in this area should be prospective and from the time of diagnosis. This is an identified gap this study seeks to address.
Three years later Harcourt & Rumsey (2004) followed up their previous research showing that individually, women need appropriate information, time to make decisions and ongoing emotional support. Limitations to the study were that interviews were conducted post decision which left the gathered information subject to recall and there were unidentified difficulties with the study being prospective.
Lally (2009) study involving 18 women newly diagnosed with breast cancer who were to make decisions regarding surgical options, showed that women felt supported by specialist nurses and the surgeon in their decision making. This has implications for clinical practice providing evidence of the importance of the availability of these healthcare professionals to this patient cohort.
Wolf (2004a&b) identified the importance of the role of the breast clinical nurse specialist in facilitating the process of how patients receive information. Information giving has been associated with increased autonomy, moving away from a paternalistic approach and considered to help patients cope with cancer.
Study Design
Qualitative research seeks to lend understanding of how people think individually and as part of a group. The approach is one that is interactive, holistic and inductive, data collection is flexible and reflexive (Parahoo 2006). This results in data collection and analysis that has evolved as the researcher gains insight and new questions emerge throughout the process (Pollit & Beck 2004).
The following study design describes the approach to enquiry, the methods and methodology to be used to collect data, when, where and from whom the data will be collected and how the data will be analysed.
Methods and Methodology
In quantitative research comes from a philosophical paradigm which suggeststhat human phenomena can be subject to objective study (Parhaoo 2006). Historically quantitative researchers believed that human behaviour could be predicted, a belief based on the positivist approach to natural science that the world works according to fixed laws of cause and effect or causality by testing hypothesis and theories (Muijs 2011). This approach strives for objectivity and to avoid bias advocates distance between researcher and subject (Holloway & Wheeler 2002).
Quantitative research has been used by nurses dating back to the Crimean war (1853-1856) and can produce robust scientific data which is essential for evidence based practice (Parahoo 2006). However it has been criticised for being narrow and inflexible, of focussing on a small part of the human experience where nursing concerns itself with a holistic approach (Pollit & Beck2004).
In comparison qualitative research is flexible and the relationship between researcher and participant less formal. Phenomenology, grounded theory and ethnography are the main research traditions which underpin the philosophical approach to qualitative research (Polit & Hungler 1997). Such research traditions explore the subjective nature of the human experience (Magilvy2003) and aim to collect data in naturalistic environments ensuring a holistic approach to data gathering which requires the researcher to be intensely involved in the fieldwork as “a full co-participant”(Polit & Beck 2008). Each of the disciplines focuses on the experience of human beings and their interpretation of the experience (Holloway& Wheeler 2002). The approaches demand careful collection and analysis of rich in-depth data to provide a comprehensive understanding of peoples thinking and behaviour which can improve efficiency and predict outcomes in the healthcare setting (Parahoo 2006).
Qualitative research has been criticised as anecdotal, for producing findings that are neither scientific nor generalisable and, due to the intense involvement of the researcher, objectivity is lost (Parahoo2006). To reduce researcher bias or maintain objectivity in data collection a process known as bracketing may be used which enables the setting aside any personal beliefs, prior knowledge or expectations the researcher has regarding the study.
Qualitative and quantitative research methods are appropriate for nursing research and both create or increase knowledge that may explain or describe the phenomenon being studied (Harper & Hartman1997).
The intent of this study is to explore and lend understanding about how women decide to uptake breast reconstruction or not following mastectomy for breast cancer therefore a qualitative approach will fit as it seeks to explore the experiences of decision making.
Sampling is the process of selecting a portion of the population from the total population of the subject of the enquiry; a sample is a subset of that population (Pollit & Beck 2004). Sampling allows cost effective research as resources such as time and funds are likely to be limited and can provide robust information.
There are two basic types of sample; probability and non-probability. A probability sample is randomly selected in contrast a non-probability sample is chosen to provide the sought data (Parahoo 2006). The selection of the sample should be robust enough to identify and use the participants who can supply the information to inform the study (Polit & Hungler 1997).Qualitative researchers aim to gather data which is rich and in-depth; this is the underlying principle which guides the sampling technique.
For the purpose of this study the researcher intends to recruit 8-10 participants using purposeful sampling technique. Polit and Beck (2008) describe this as using the researcher’s knowledge about the sample population to “hand pick” potential participants who will most benefit the study. These individuals will be sampled as those most likely to be able to provide information on decision to undergo reconstruction following mastectomy or not.
Sample size does not determine importance of the study or the quality of the data, in qualitative research too large a sample size risks loss of depth and meaning and may reduce the richness of the data (Holloway & Wheeler 2002).Some texts recommend between six and eight participants (Holloway & Wheeler 2002) others suggest size should be based on informational needs (Polit & Beck 2004). If saturation occurs before this number is achieved then recruitment will be limited to the saturation point. Saturation refers to the point when no further meaningful data is obtained and as such the number of participants can be led by the fullness of the data collected (Wood & Ross-Kerr 2006).
To address the research question, the researcher initially considered recruiting female patients requiring mastectomy to the study at the time of diagnosis when discussion regarding breast reconstruction cancer would occur. However, following discussion with the course leader and a period of reflection, it was decided that this was a vulnerable cohort and it would not be ethical to approach them at a time when they were trying to process information regarding a cancer diagnosis and subsequent treatments.
A decision was taken to approach the women 3-6 months post diagnosis when their rationale for their decision was still clear to them and breast cancer support
mechanisms were in place.
The intention is to approach the consultants who are responsible for breast cancer patients in a specific regional area for permission to recruit the patients. Being part of the multidisciplinary team, as a breast clinical nurse specialist, involved in managing the care of these women, the researcher is known to the consultants and does not anticipate any objection to this.
Individual participants will be approached by the researcher and given verbal and written information about the study, a suitable length of time to decide to take part or not will be agreed. The individual will be reassured that their decision will be respected and, regardless of outcome, they will continue to receive care without bias.
The researcher may be the healthcare professional designated to fulfil a particular aspect of care of some of the sample group. It is anticipated that this would not bias any data collection as the same level of professional intervention is given to all patients undertaking this decision making process. Goodman & Moule (2009) highlight the responsibility of the nurse researcher to inform the participant that they are acting as a researcher. Bracketing can be utilised to suspend any researcher beliefs or preconceptions. This theory will be tested in the pilot study and should any bias be revealed then the researcher will ensure the standard care of the study cohort is supplied by an independent practioner.
Potential participants will be recruited at a planned follow up appointment where patients attend for review of their treatment. This negates the requirement of an extra appointment for participants.
Ethics approval
Research supports the development of nursing knowledge and as individuals and professionals nurses undertaking research must consider the ethical issues that can arise (Smith & Hunt 1997).
When participants in research are vulnerable, as in the health care system, their rights must be protected (Wood & Ross-Kerr 2006). The Royal College of Nursing Research Society Ethics Guidance Group (2009) highlight that nurses can have a variety of roles in research including carrying out their own projects, that it is important the nurse understands the important issues in research practice and it is their role to protect the participant and their rights. Beauchamp & Childress (1983) illustrate the concept of biomedical standards as four principles; respect for Autonomy, Beneficence, Nonmaleficence and Justice which underpin healthcare ethics.
Without understandable information an individual is not able to make an autonomous decision to participate in research or not; they are therefore unable to give informed consent. Berendt, Golz, Bertz & Wunsch (2011) conducted a qualitative study asking what patients understood about trial participation, specifically assessing their understanding of informed consent and discovered that patients’ understanding was less than anticipated and the patients’ identified needs including “ clear informed consent consultations”.
The notion of informed consent encompasses; the right to be informed, consent to be given voluntarily and competence of the participant (Tschudin 2003).
The participants anonymity and confidentiality must be protected therefore any information provided by interviewees will not identify them nor will it be accessible to others. For the purpose of the study suitable storage for data pertaining to the research will be sought.
Prior to seeking approval for the study from the local National Health Service (NHS) research ethics committee and the local research and development department, the researcher will seek guidance from the appointed academic supervisor.
To ensure informed consent participant information sheets about the study purpose which will include any benefits and risks, dissemination of results, assurance of participant anonymity and consent forms will be provided. Participants will be advised they are free to withdraw from the study at ant time without penalty and asked to sign a consent form a copy of which will be given to the participant and one retained by the researcher. Consent forms and information sheets will be utilised using guidance from the National Research Ethics Service website
Participants may recall experiences that cause emotional distress and as their needs are greater than those of the study the process would be suspended or discontinued ( Thompson, Melia & Boyd 2000).
The intention is to generate data using in-depth unstructured interviews which enable the informant unlimited opportunity to convey their perception of events. This is an intentional approach to discovering the participants lived experience of the phenomenon and the interviewers’ ability to listen and convey respect and importance of the experience is crucial (Oman, Krugman & Fink 2003).
Unstructured interviews are purposeful conversations which enable rich but often unquantifiable information about the phenomenon (Smith & Hunt 1997) the conversations are interactive and usually begin with general questions to enable truly unstructured interview, for example “What happened when you first learned you would need to undergo mastectomy?” (Polit & Beck 2004). Interviews can last from thirty minutes to two hours and interviewer/interviewee interaction may vary therefore in qualitative interviews flexibility of the researcher is key to obtaining useful data (Parahoo 2006).
Structuring data generated from unstructured interviews is known as content analysis and themes will be looked for in the data and divided into categories. The categories that will be developed are dependent on the researcher and can be further categorised into frequency tables to indicate the frequency of the response (Wood & Ross-Kerr 2006).
The qualitative interviewer is the tool of data collection as it will be she who analysis data in her mind during interviews thereafter transcribing and presenting the data in a way that can be easily understood (Parahoo 2006).
Qualitative researchers recognise the subjective nature of the interview process and seek to ensure rigor by incorporating reflexivity and validation of data by the interviewee, reflexivity enables the respondent to report on the accurateness of the transcribed interview and can provide opportunity for clarification (Parahoo 2006). Others utilise four criteria to establish trustworthiness; credibility, dependability, confirmability and transferability (Polit & Hungler 1997). Credibility refers to trust in the data enhanced by giving sufficient time to gather data to give in-depth understanding of the study cohort. Member checking is regarded as an important technique for establishing the credibility of qualitative data and involves feedback of the data and researchers findings and recording the respondent’s reactions. Peer debriefing relates to the exposure of the researcher to others who are experienced in either qualitative inquiry or the studied subject who can review aspects of the inquiry. Dependability refers to the ability of the data to stand the test of time regardless of the conditions and is liked to confirmability. Confirmability is a measure of the objectivity of the data and as such the researcher should present an audit trail of the data, methods and decisions to an external auditor to check trustworthiness. This strategy may offer some protection to support trustworthiness but caution should be used; the unique nature of inquiry may not lend themselves well to different interpretations of data. Transferability requires the researcher to demonstrate the extent their findings can be applied to other contexts (Goodman & Moule 2009).
Pilot Study
A pilot study is a trial of the research method on a small scale the purpose of which is to ensure the study design is feasible (Presly 1996, Polit & Beck2004).
A pilot study will be conducted using an unstructured interview as planned for the main study. This will enable a trial of the interview process, gauge length of time interviews may take and allow the researcher to familiarise herself with technical equipment (Lacey 2006).
Data collection & analysis
Data collection refers to the way information is collected, recorded and presented to address a research inquiry (Clamp, Gough & Land 2004).High quality data increases the value of the research and the aim of the qualitative data analysis in this study is to structure the data into meaningful units using thematic analysis. This stepwise approach begins with the researcher identifying themes in the data, thereafter categorising the themes; this may be a natural occurrence or the researcher must decide the category. The final step is to structure the data and this can be achieved by developing a frequency table which serves to identify the frequency of every category, the response rate and number of participants who gave the same response (Brink & Wood 2001).
The researcher intends to audio tape participants during unstructured interviews, using field notes to complement data collection. Field notes can facilitate deeper understanding of the data as it enables conveyance intangible elements such as body language and feelings. They are also useful in the event of failure of audio equipment.
Surgery for breast cancer is an emotional experience and mastectomy can be particularly harrowing as women face disfiguring surgery and a potentially life threatening disease. Making decisions at a difficult time may render potential study participants emotionally unavailable which may impact on recruitment to the study and delay the planned recruitment period. Should this situation evolve the intended cohort will be extended to include those women who underwent mastectomy more than six months previously but no longer that eight months to capture the freshness of their experience.
The study forms part of a Masters programme which allows circa ten months for the completion of the study therefore any delay in the timeline could be crucial. As such ethical approval will be sought early to facilitate a prompt beginning to data collection.
Details of the plan of work and timescales show the expected duration of each stage of the study and endeavour to show the feasibility of the study (Cormack1996).
A Timetable for the proposed study has been prepared (appendix 2) and will be adhered to. It demonstrates the beginning and expected conclusion of the study activities and shows where they run simultaneously.
The budget estimation for this enquiry is as follows:
Researcher time Agreed by local management / colleagues
Transcribers’ time (agreed)? 40.00
Ink ?
Transport costs?
Postal costs ?
The reviewed literature reveals a variety of reasons why breast reconstructive surgery is undertaken by some women following mastectomy for breast cancer. These include age, socio economic status, ethnicity, availability of surgeon, potential effects of radiotherapy id required amongst others.
It has been highlighted that decision making ability may be impaired due to emotional conditions caused by a health crisis. All of the research identified the need for further research. There was very limited inquiry into how the women made their choices and none of it captured the women’s experiences of making the decision.
This study provides an opportunity to discover how women feel about making decisions. It is anticipated such a study could enhance how healthcare providers attend to the needs of women who must make a decision to undergo breast reconstruction following mastectomy due to breast cancer.
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Resources: EEOC website, U.S. Court System website, and EEO 101: The Basic Theories of Employment Discrimination

Search the following key terms: discrimination complaint process, litigation process, mediation process, and dispute resolution.

John identifies as a Hispanic employee in a private sector organization. He is regularly called an “idiot” by his supervisor. The supervisor has hardly ever called non-Hispanic employees derogatory names. Finally, the supervisor starts calling John an inflammatory name that is known to be derogatory to Hispanics. John now finds his work environment intolerable though his supervisor has no intention to demote or fire John for any reason. John, however, wants to file a discrimination complaint against his employer. He went to his HR department first, but was dissatisfied with their lack of help.

Prepare a 700 word paper written in the third person voice in which you analyze and explain the discrimination complaint and civil litigation process as it would potentially apply to John and his employer.

What are the elements of a hostile work environment harassment claim?
Can John potentially satisfy the elements of a hostile work environment harassment claim?
Does his employer have any defense for the supervisor’s conduct?

Identify whether John can make a prima facie case of hostile work environment by identifying the elements required to bring a cause of action for discrimination.

Explain how the complaint process begins with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) and proceeds with a right-to-sue letter through the civil litigation process from the state level up to the U. S. Supreme Court.

Include a discussion on Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and other relevant aspects addressing discrimination complaints and disputes in the workplace.

Format your paper consistent with APA guidelines, including using headings to appropriately signal topics to keep your document organized.

Use a minimum of three different in-text citation sources within your paper, and properly identify them in your References page. Any laws and legal cases used in the body of your paper must also be included in the References page.

New Jersey corrections officer

Paul Leaders has been a New Jersey Department of Corrections Officer (NJDCO) for over ten years.  As a NJDCO, Paul’s role and responsibility is to “ensure the custody, safety and care of criminal offenders confined in state correctional facilities” (   It is his duty to “ensure the safety and welfare of the staff and inmate population, assist in the rehabilitative efforts for those incarcerated individuals returning to the community and promote public support for the operation and objectives of the Department of Corrections” (
At the age of 25, Paul began his career with the Department of Corrections.  Before he became a full-fledge corrections office, he had to go through a screening process.  The pre-employment screening is a four phase process that includes filling out an application, taking a video test, completing a computer background assessment, a general and intensive background check, a drug test, a written psych exam, a medical exam and a psych interview.  If an interviewee gets through the screening successfully, next comes a 14 week training course at the academy and then an on the job test period (  The pre-employment screening is vigorous to discourage those who are not serious about making the Department of Corrections their career of choice.
Once Paul successfully completed his screening, his on the job test period began in a youth facility.  His eyes were opened to the harsh realities of his position when he was attacked by a 15 year-old inmate. Although, he was not seriously hurt, his perspective changed. Paul realized that to do his job to the best of his ability and to protect himself and his co-workers, he had to treat all inmates as dangerous, no matter what their age.  Throughout the years, the dangers associated with his career choice were clearly seen.  NJDOC’s are often put in a variety of sticky situations.

The ratio of officers to inmates is 1 to 3 (  Since they are out-numbered, a NJDOC’s goal is to stop potentially harmful situations before they happen.  Paul learned many valuable techniques in his psychology classes during his 14-week training process. (  It is so much easier to prevent situations from happening than to try to de-escalate a situation once it has started.
Paul has found the most challenging aspect of being a NJDCO is the personal standard necessary.  An NJDCO must have a higher set of standards when the bars clang shut.  A daily part of the job includes being taunted, called out of your name, and possibly attacked.  Through all this, a NJDCO cannot retaliate.  It is not the correction officer’s place to get angry or respond in kind.  They must turn away when an inmate is purposely trying to rile them.  If an officer hurts an inmate or is caught abusing their authority, they will be fired.  The duty of a NJDCO is to uphold the laws of the penal code and treat inmates with respect.
NJDCOs’ spend time at lease forty hours a week with inmates.  Officers get to know the inmates extremely well and see facets of the human psyche many people are unaware of.  “40% of NJDOC offenders were convicted of a violent offense such as homicide, sexual assault, aggravated or simple assault, robbery, kidnapping and other personal offenses (terrorist threats, coercion, larceny from a person, death by auto and negligent manslaughter)” (
Dealing with inmates intimately is no walk in the park.  Officer relationships with inmates have gone from one extreme to another.  Some officers have been charged with bringing inmates contraband and others have been charged with assault on an inmate.  The key to survival is finding the balance – living in the middle is an NJDCO officer’s way.
The department of corrections has a code of ethics that must be adhered to if an officer is to last on the job.  It is necessary to hold in confidence all information gained on the job, no gifts or services can be accepted from inmates or family members and no personal or financial gain is to be made that is in conflict with duties or will impair objectivity or judgment (  To sum it up, be honest and do your job.  Unfortunately, for some, that’s easier said than done.
The Department of Corrections has a Hearing Appeals Section and an Administrative Law/Civil Employment Litigation Section that handles employee discipline/grievances and resolves cases against employees (  Whenever a corrections officer is facing an ethical issue, representation is provided so that the officer’s rights are not violated.
Of course, there are specific laws correction officers must obey and if they knowingly exceed the extent of their power then they can face a judge and possibly go to jail.  The added stress of the job decreases the correction officer’s life p to 59 years (  Therefore, it is necessary to have your guard up continuously if you want to make wise choices, get through the workday with your personal honor intact and live longer than what some researchers have predicted.
The stress of the job has caused Paul to think thought about moving into a different area of law enforcement but this might require more training and schooling.  As a corrections officer, his high school diploma was all he needed, along with being a US citizen, having a valid New Jersey driver’s license, speaking English well and being able to handle the job physically and psychologically.  Although he took extra courses during training, he does not believe that will be enough for a transfer to a different department.  Paul has not investigated the move and after an especially hard day with the inmates, he promises himself that he will.
Prolonged contact with inmates is the main difference between NJDCO positions and other law enforcement positions.  Policemen and detectives, for example, investigate crimes and track criminals.  They may have to face the individuals in court, but once they are locked up, their contact with the criminal is over.  A NJDCO’s contact with the criminal begins after the other law enforcement officers’ contact has ended and that contact lasts as long as the inmates’ sentence.
For the first few years of his career, Paul found fulfillment on his job.  He is serving his state, providing a needed assistance, protecting the residents of New Jersey and helping his fellow officers.  Now, he can’t say that.  The stress of not knowing what will happen from day to day is extremely hard and the last few years have been a struggle.  The constant hassle of the job has become overwhelming and is causing a strain on his marriage of 2 years.  The fact that he cannot express why he dissatisfied and he does not want to talk about the job increases to the couple’s frustration.
Add the fact that he cannot talk about confidential information and the situation gets dangerous.  Communication between Paul and his wife has gone from bad to worse.  Because they are planning to have children, Paul recently transferred from the youth facility to a minimum security prison.  They are hoping this change will decrease his stress and ease the strain in their relationship.  Paul believes the transfer will make a big difference in his attitude and stress level, increasing his job satisfaction.
In New Jersey, the Department of Corrections is made up of minimum, medium and maximum-security prisons.  With 14 major institutions, including 8 male prisons, 3 youth facilities, 1 female prison, and one prison for sex offenders, there were plenty of facilities for Paul to choose from.  Moving to a maximum-security prison would have meant an increase in pay but for Paul, added money would have brought added stress.  This wasn’t the case when Paul’s career began but today, the salary for a corrections officer is $43,000.  The max amount for a senior corrections officer is $65,000, achieved in nine step increments (
There are over ten different promotions available to senior corrections officers, which include, Central Transportation, Correction Staff Training Academy, Critical Incident Negotiation Teams, Custody Recruitment Unit and SRP Boot Camp.  These are just some of the positions available to Senior Correction Officers (  Although, all officers go through rigorous training that includes coursework, most officers who move into higher positions have additional schooling.  If things go well in his new position, Paul believes that one day, he may be ready to interview for one of the promotional positions.
Paul believes the key to a successful career in the Department of Corrections is to walk on the job daily with a mindset of integrity and tactfulness mixed with firmness.  Inmates are people, just like you, no matter what they’ve done.  An officer cannot take their crimes lightly but an officer must, to the best of their ability, treat them with respect.  Then, do your job, have a life outside of work, leave your job at the door and choose to be happy.  That may be the key.  Paul hopes it will be the key to his future happiness and the future happiness of his family.

2006.  Retrieved April 3, 2007 from
Forsberg, Mary E.  Money for Nothing?  The Financial Cost of New Jersey’s Death Penalty.  November 2005.  Retrieved April 6, 2007 from
New Jersey Department of Corrections.  1996.  Retrieved April 3, 2007 from

Accident Prevention Plan

 Assignment: You are to complete an accident prevention plan for a company. The Complete list of content/sections to be covered is listed in the contents section below. The company profile, which you need to match to the content/sections, is listed in the company profile section below. The expected finished length of this assignment is 75 pages.

template has been attached to help you organize your Accident Prevention Plan. 

Body Text Size: All of the body text in this assignment needs to be set in 12-point size. Please resist the temptation to mix and match point sizes.
Header Text Size: All of the header text in this assignment can be set in 14-point or 16-point size. Please resist the temptation to mix and match point sizes. Pick your text size and use it consistently throughout the assignment.
Double Spacing: For this assignment select all of your text and set it for double spacing. This includes the headers and body of your work.(The exception to the double spacing is the text on the title page.)
Page Margins: Set your pages to one-inch margins. One-inch margins mean one (1”) on all sides. The only text that ends up on the outside of the one-inch margin is the page number. 
 Title Page: This page will contain the title, “Accident Prevention Plan”, . Place the title in the center, right to left and about one-third the way down the page. 

Spelling/Grammar Checking: Remember to do your spelling and grammar checking before turning your assignments in. When doing the spelling/grammar checking keep in mind that some words such as mush and must, woods and words, or here and cow, will not be caught by either check. To correct these problems, you will need to proofread your work.
Page Numbers: Any assignment that has more than one page, needs to have page numbers on it. Please place your page numbers on the bottom of the page. In MS Word, use the footer selection and place the page number in the bottom center or bottom right of the page.

Content: (Major Contents/Sections Check-Off List)
___      1. Title Page
___      2. Table of Contents Page
___      3. Divider Pages
___      4. Introduction
                        A. Purpose & Intentions
                        B. Company Presidents Statement
___      5. Management Responsibilities
                        A. Manager Responsibilities                
                        B. Supervisors Responsibilities
___      6. Employee Orientation
                        A. How and When
                        B. Emergency Action Plan
                        C. Emergency Shutdown Procedures
___      7. Injury and Illness Procedures
                        A. Procedures
                        B. Record Keeping
                        C. Supervisor Responsibilities
                        D. Report Form
___      8. Incident/Accident Investigation Procedures
                        A. Procedure Steps
                        B. Worksheet Form
                        C. Incident/Accident Table
___      9. Safety Guidelines
                        A. Guidelines
                        B. Equipment Specific
                        C. Individual Specific
___      10. Safety Disciplinary Policy
___      11. Safety Awareness Program
                        A. Safety Committee
                        B. Safety Meetings
                        C. Safety Training and Forms
                        D. Safety Award Program
___      12. Appendices
                        A. MSDS
                        B. State & Federal Posters
                        C. OSHA Forms and Instructions
Company Profile:
Company Size: 350 employees
Company Product: Custom manufacture of industrial hardened computers (CPU, Keyboards, etc)
Processes at factory include:
            Circuit board assembly
            Circuit board production
            Metal case production
            Plastic forming processes
            Plastic pellet storage and transport to machines
Specific equipment in factory:
            Air compressor
            Electric forklift
            Metal punch presses
            Metal bending and cutting machines
            Plastic injection molding machines
            Plastic sheet forming equipment
            Shearing machine for sheet plastic
Safety Promotion Budget: $8,000 annually 

Due: 10/03/2020

Muay Thai

Muay Thai Muay Thai is well known as one of the most dangerous sports around the world. Coming from Thailand it has its roots from many ancient forms of Asian martial arts also similar to the style of kick boxing and strike force. Muay as local people call it has an old history full of great fighters. Due to the terrible economy in Thailand it never got too much attention. Instead, it has remained a national sport and part of the folklore. Muay Thai has similar rules to every non-weapon fight sport, but knees and elbows are allowed.
It is practiced in a ring. The brutality of the fights makes the sport sometimes have a critical end where fighters go out on a stretcher. Nowadays, Thailand is considered the capital of this sport, and famous fighters have moved there for long periods of time in order to perfect the techniquee. Thailand considers muay thai part of the folklore and the impact it has in society is big. Muay Thai has an old history has been known since 1700 when the Burmese troops surrounded a big group of Thais where kick boxers were and took them to Burma.
The king of Burma, King Mangra, wanted to make a festival for Buddha’s religion where he included a lot of entertainment. At the end as a closing event king wanted to see who was the best between the Burmesses fighters and the Thai kick boxers. Nai Khanomtom was selected to fight against the best Burmesses fighters. At the end of the first fight, the Burmese fighter collapsed, so the king asked Khanomtom to fight the best nine fighters from Burma, beating all of them one after the other with no stopping. Muay Thai. ” Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 21 Nov. 2012. Web. 01 Dec. 2012. <http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Muay_Thai>. Thai Boxing is a very respectful and strict sport. The sport is linked to the Buddhist religion and the respect the fighters feel for their professors and superiors is shown by a kind of dance known as nak nmuay. This dance occurs just before the fight and it also has a sense of gratitude to their professors, and what they have taught them. Since a very young age Thai ighters are playing around rings, and even though they do not know how to fight they play child games, and later on they get to know all the gear just by playing although they do not know what it is for. Nak muay, as Thai fighters are known for start training since childhood and as they grow fights are set one after the other. Some families, dedicated to this spot, live inside the fight campus outside the city. The father, usually after being a champion, trains his child to fight and the money the child gains from winning is used to get food and pay for family things.

The techniques they learned are combined with their own style, and that allows the fighters to create variations of the same kicks and punches. The ascension of king Chulalongkorn (Rama V) to the throne in 1868 ushered in a Golden Age not only for muay but the whole country. “Muay Thai. ” Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 21 Nov. 2012. Web. 01 Dec. 2012. <http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Muay_Thai>. Muay progressed greatly during the reign of Rama V as a direct result of the king’s personal interest in the art. The country was at peace and muay functioned as a mean of physical exercise, and recreation. “What Is Muay Thai. ” WCK Muay Thai RSS. N. p. , n. d. Web. 01 Dec. 2012. <http://www. wckmuaythai. com/2009/12/01/what-is-muay-thai/>. ) . Nowadays there are remarkable fighters well known around the world as Yodsanklai who fights for Fairtex, the biggest company of muay Thai equipment. Buakaw Pranuk a promising fighter who held the title of K1 (Japanese tournament where the winner is named the best stand up fighter in the world) two times. Knee strikes are possibly the most deadly movements a Muay Thai practitioner has.
Knees are often used in the clinch, where a boxer grabs the head of the other boxer and pulls his body down while the knee is thrown upward. A good knee strike delivered in the head can exert enough force to lift a car. Knees may also be thrown to the body, or in a flying knee strike, where the boxer jumps and throws the knee at his opponent face. A flying knee strike, when landed, will almost certainly end a fight by knockout. (“Thread: Muay Thai Essay for School. ” Muay Thai Essay for School. N. p. , n. d. Web. 01 Dec. 2012. <http://www. seymourduncan. com/forum/showthread. php? 16590-muay-thai-essay-for-school>. ) In conclusion, this martial art is the perfect combination of every part of the body that could be used as a weapon. At the same time, it is also part of the history of Thailand. Muay Thai gyms can be found all around the world, full of fighters that believe that there is no limit between them and the sky. This martial art is finding its own path in many fighting professional leagues, as UFC (Ultimate Fighting Championship), K1, Strike force and others. I believe Muay Thai helps people not only to exercise, but to grow spiritually and mentally.

Analysis: When Technology Goes Beyond the Law

This discussion will focus on analyzing the issues surrounding technologies that are developed faster than legal standards governing those technologies, as well as the ethical issues involving law enforcement’s use or non-use of emerging technologies. Using a minimum of three scholarly sources, identify one example of a technology used by law enforcement, where the technology is currently outpacing legal guidelines. 
Cite your sources
Describe the law and how you would address the issue.
Create a three-paragraph initial minimum of 250 words in length. Your first paragraph will be a short analysis of the specific issue, the second paragraph should provide specific examples of how the use of that technology has outpaced the law, and your third paragraph will suggest a meaningful remedy to address the disconnect. It is not sufficient simply to suggest the passing of a law; you must provide details on the verbiage and content of the law and explain how it would remediate the issue. Support your claims with examples from required material(s) and/or other scholarly sources, and properly cite any references using APA style.
In-text citing
APA format
Atleast three reference

Research Plan

My topic proposal is to create a program because as a business owner of a small store, I would like to create something that I will be able to use for all future orders and sales. I will be using Java and SQL to create this program.

The topic proposal should be in the form of a research plan. The proposal should briefly address the following issues:
1) Problem addressed
Clearly state the research problem that you plan to address.
2) Prior research
Briefly discuss the body of literature that is used to motivate the research. Emphasize the shortcomings in the prior literature that you plan to address.
3) Significance
Explain why you think your work is significant in the field of study. Cite references wherever possible to establish that there is a consensus among researchers that the problem addressed in the article is indeed an important one.
4) Methodology
Discuss the methodology you plan to use for the study. Justify the appropriateness of the selected methodology. Be as precise as you can. Identify the knowledge representation scheme and the search strategy where appropriate.
Make sure that you cite all relevant articles that are referenced in your paper. Please submit a copy of the paper that you believe is most significant in motivating your work. If relevant, you may also send copies of any other supporting articles.

Culture Nestle

When gauging consumer expectations, Nestle has had its focus on learning which product categories will do well with a particular consumer. Their test samples and surveys all reveal that Nestle has a strong reputation amongst consumers on a global scale. Nestle brands are well known and they are recognized as having good products and new products which meet consumer expectations. Nestle has also demonstrated that it is generally interested in the buying behaviors of its consumers.
It has done this via marketing research projects which are tasked with the responsibility of surveying various populations demographically and determining what gets a certain person to buy a certain product in the grocery. The marketing teams provide statistically data back to the management level which indicates what the consumer has indicated and helps guide the direction of the companies innovation of products. Buyer power in Porter’s Five forces is important to the consumer because they might have brand loyalty which could be obtained.
Nestle will also need to be sensitive to the pricing of their products because they do not want to out price themselves in the market. By differentiating their product(s) Nestle will also be able to conduct their business with a stronger consumer basis (http://marketing. about. com/cs/brandmktg/a/whatisbranding. htm). Culture Nestle knows that all marketing related communication requires cross cultural research in order to be successful. Nestle’s culture is oriented around the ideology that via strong communication the company can instill a team mentality in its employees.

They must also consider that their products must appeal to different cultures and ethnic groups therefore they must have a variety of products. For instance, some cultures do not eat pork so their pizza toppings should have the option of not having pork. Pasta opportunity Overall, because Pizza and Pasta are regarded as fast food people prefer them because it saves them time from having to cook themselves. In western and some Asian countries, the general consumer is going to restaurants for a quick meal of pizza or pasta.
Commercially produced pizzas in North America and specially manufactured “pizza” cheeses, sell easily because there is a variety of cheeses and toppings being used. The Nestle case identified that in 1987 Nestle outbid one of its international rival’s Draft, in the purchase of a company called Lamberts Pasta & Cheese which was a gourmet stores in New York City which sold freshly made pasta and imported cheeses. When local supermarkets were asked to stock Lambet’s products, the company was able to develop a special process which extended the shelf life of their products from the usual 2-3days to 40 days.
The technical yet innovative process basically relaxed the residual oxygen in the pasta package with nitrogen. The 38 day extension of shelf life introduced a good distribution system which did not affect product quality. While fresh pasta was available in gourmet stores and restaurants, it was not commonly sold in grocery stores. Dry pasta sold regularly like mac and cheese or various spaghettis. Via the emergence of this new pasta product line, Nestle would need to identify a brand name for its product and increase awareness of its market potential.
This would also allow Nestle to accept that the pasta opportunity would be felt in all areas of the United States and potentially on the global scale as well. This made the Contadina brand an ideal candidate. The Contadina name itself reflected as an image of authentic Italian cookie, and was associated with old fashioned traditional foods rather than convenience products. Therefore, Nestle must use its balance sheet values and market value to increase its overall value in the industry (http://www. htm).
The Process Here are the seven product development processes generated by Nestle. 1. Idea generation. Creation and brainstorming of new idea by the researcher 2. Concept screening. Practically testing of the idea by the researchers for marketing results 3. Product development. Start product processing on a trail bases and test check in the target market. 4. Quantification of volume. Financial aspect of the newly developed item with potential profits and sales volumes 5. Test market
Where should be offer and what is the target market, target customer and age group etc. 6. Commercial evaluation To be offer for all general public or only for specific demographic group of population 7. Introductory tracking Delivering into the market for a specific time period so that check out the market potential over the new product (www. nestle. com) Launching the pizza Nestle noticed an 11% increase in first-half sales for such pizza and pasta items. Nestle said that the increase in reported sales was mainly by above target organic growth of 6.4%, resulting from a historically hath real internal growth of 4. 8%. There was a strong growth in the Americas and in Asia which showed that the whole fast food industry and pizza industry was growing.
Decision Tree Decision tree is one of the most important tools in financial management shows different alternative investment or brand capability based on customer choice. The following decision tree was taken from the Excel sheet. The most recommended figure as calculated in spread sheet (Excel) by a decision tree above are 3.16 million units for Pasta that is calculated by the adjusted Trail Rate that 80% of the sample population would buy the brand with the repeat rate of 44% gives most appropriate figure of Pasta units. Recommendations and Alternatives NRFC needs to do further testing before launching their new product line into the market. When they finally launch they will need to start with the Pizza Kit & Topping selection as compared to the Pizza Only selection which would open up a new customer base for them. By starting with a wider selection of products they can appeal to a wider range of individuals.
They do need to launch as soon as possible in order to build the refrigerated good category as well as to get the market share with first mover advantage as it did in the Contadina pasta. Financial research has indicated that consumers are willing to pay between $6 to 7 dollars which is lower than other prices because the average retail price is $8. (http://www. investorglossary. com/market-share. htm) Furthermore, as the selection of meats being used in the toppings is limited to pork and vegetables it would be advised for Nestle to have a greater selection of toppings, such as beef, which would be more widely accepted.
Many issues do need to be considered for Nestle to compete in the global market place such as cost and financing of processing and froze facility and equipments, availability and cost of packaging materials etc. They will need to focus on identifying new food items for development to increase their marketshare on a global scale. Their specific products will need to be accessed against market potential for increasing their sales as well. Closing summary Contadina is positioned in the market, because of its achievements and quality products, so they must take advantage of this opportunity.
If Kraft introduces its product then Contadina should take the first-mover advantage based on its positioning and reputation within the pizza/pasta/sauces consumers. Works Cited Trout, Jack (2007). Product Positioning. Retrieved November 28, 2008 from Website http://www. quickmba. com/marketing/ries-trout/positioning/ Nestle. Nestle At a Glance. Retrieved November 29, 2008 from Website http://www. nestleusa. com/PubAbout/NestleAtGlance. aspx Wikipedia. Marketing Research. Retrieved November 26, 2008 from Website http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Marketing_research
Porter’s Five Forces: A Model for Industry Analysis. Retrieved November 25, 2008 from Website http://www. quickmba. com/strategy/porter. shtml Nestle Case Study (2007). http://www. enterprise-ireland. com/NR/exeres/C182CD20-86DE-429C-8D95-AB2F2C31ECF3. htm Lake, Laura (2008). What is Branding and How Important is It to Your Marketing Strategy. Retrieved November 26, 2008 from Website http://marketing. about. com/cs/brandmktg/a/whatisbranding. htm Market share. (2007). Retrieved November 27,2008 from Website http://www. investorglossary. com/market-share. htm Nestle. www. zacks. com Nestle Website.
Retrieved November 26, 2008 from Website www. nestle. com Research Methods Knowledge Base (2006). Sampling. Retrieved November 28,2008 from Website http://www. investorglossary. com/market-share. htm Research and Markets: Discover IT Sales Opportunities for Leading Manufacturing Companies in Europe for 2008: With a Focus on ArcelorMittal, Nestle SA and Siemens AG (2008). Retrieved November 29, 2008 from Website www. businesswire. com SWAT Analysis (2007). Retrieved November 28, 2008 from Website http://www. gregschaale. com/A_New_SWATanalysis. htm

Decision Making Tools

P A R T I V QUANTITATIVE MODULES Quantitative Module Decision-Making Tools A Module Outline
When you complete this module you should be able to IDENTIFY OR DEFINE: Decision trees and decision tables Highest monetary value Expected value of perfect information Sequential decisions DESCRIBE OR EXPLAIN: Decision making under risk Decision making under uncertainty Decision making under certainty 674 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The wildcatter’s decision was a tough one. Which of his new Kentucky lease areas—Blair East or Blair West—should he drill for oil? A wrong decision in this type of wildcat oil drilling could mean the difference between success and bankruptcy for the company.

Talk about decision making under uncertainty and pressure! But using a decision tree, Tomco Oil President Thomas E. Blair identified 74 different options, each with its own potential net profit. What had begun as an overwhelming number of geological, engineering, economic, and political factors now became much clearer. Says Blair, “Decision tree analysis provided us with a systematic way of planning these decisions and clearer insight into the numerous and varied financial outcomes that are possible. ”1 “The business executive is by profession a decision maker. Uncertainty is his opponent. Overcoming it is his mission. ” John McDonald
Operations managers are decision makers. To achieve the goals of their organizations, managers must understand how decisions are made and know which decision-making tools to use. To a great extent, the success or failure of both people and companies depends on the quality of their decisions. Bill Gates, who developed the DOS and Windows operating systems, became chairman of the most powerful software firm in the world (Microsoft) and a billionaire. In contrast, the Firestone manager who headed the team that designed the flawed tires that caused so many accidents with Ford Explorers in the late 1990s is not working there anymore.
THE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS What makes the difference between a good decision and a bad decision? A “good” decision—one that uses analytic decision making—is based on logic and considers all available data and possible alternatives. It also follows these six steps: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Clearly define the problem and the factors that influence it. Develop specific and measurable objectives. Develop a model—that is, a relationship between objectives and variables (which are measurable quantities). Evaluate each alternative solution based on its merits and drawbacks.
Select the best alternative. Implement the decision and set a timetable for completion. Throughout this book, we have introduced a broad range of mathematical models and tools to help operations managers make better decisions. Effective operations depend on careful decision making. Fortunately, there are a whole variety of analytic tools to help make these decisions. This modHosseini, “Decision Analysis and Its Application in the Choice between Two Wildcat Ventures,” Interfaces, Vol. 16, no. 2. Reprinted by permission, INFORMS, 901 Elkridge Landing Road, Suite 400, Linthicum, Maryland 21090 USA. J. D E C I S I O N TA B L E S “Management means, in the last analysis, the substitution of thought for brawn and muscle, of knowledge for folklore and tradition, and of cooperation for force. ” Peter Drucker 675 ule introduces two of them—decision tables and decision trees. They are used in a wide number of OM situations, ranging from new-product analysis (Chapter 5), to capacity planning (Supplement 7), to location planning (Chapter 8), to scheduling (Chapter 15), and to maintenance planning (Chapter 17). FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKING
Regardless of the complexity of a decision or the sophistication of the technique used to analyze it, all decision makers are faced with alternatives and “states of nature. ” The following notation will be used in this module: 1. Terms: a. Alternative—a course of action or strategy that may be chosen by a decision maker (for example, not carrying an umbrella tomorrow). b. State of nature—an occurrence or a situation over which the decision maker has little or no control (for example, tomorrow’s weather). Symbols used in a decision tree: a. —decision node from which one of several alternatives may be selected. b. —a state-of-nature node out of which one state of nature will occur. 2. To present a manager’s decision alternatives, we can develop decision trees using the above symbols. When constructing a decision tree, we must be sure that all alternatives and states of nature are in their correct and logical places and that we include all possible alternatives and states of nature. Example A1 A simple decision tree Getz Products Company is investigating the possibility of producing and marketing backyard storage sheds.
Undertaking this project would require the construction of either a large or a small manufacturing plant. The market for the product produced—storage sheds—could be either favorable or unfavorable. Getz, of course, has the option of not developing the new product line at all. A decision tree for this situation is presented in Figure A. 1. A decision node A state of nature node Favorable market 1 Unfavorable market Favorable market 2 Unfavorable market no thi ng uct t str on plan C e g lar Construct small plant Do FIGURE A. 1 I Getz Products Decision Tree DECISION TABLES Decision table
A tabular means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. We may also develop a decision or payoff table to help Getz Products define its alternatives. For any alternative and a particular state of nature, there is a consequence or outcome, which is usually expressed as a monetary value. This is called a conditional value. Note that all of the alternatives in Example A2 are listed down the left side of the table, that states of nature (outcomes) are listed across the top, and that conditional values (payoffs) are in the body of the decision table. 676 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S
We construct a decision table for Getz Products (Table A. 1), including conditional values based on the following information. With a favorable market, a large facility will give Getz Products a net profit of $200,000. If the market is unfavorable, a $180,000 net loss will occur. A small plant will result in a net profit of $100,000 in a favorable market, but a net loss of $20,000 will be encountered if the market is unfavorable. Example A2 A decision table TABLE A. 1 I Decision Table with Conditional Values for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES The toughest part of decision tables is getting the data to analyze.
Construct large plant Construct small plant Do nothing STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORABLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 In Examples A3 and A4, we see how to use decision tables. TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS The types of decisions people make depend on how much knowledge or information they have about the situation. There are three decision-making environments: • • • Decision making under uncertainty Decision making under risk Decision making under certainty Decision Making Under Uncertainty
When there is complete uncertainty as to which state of nature in a decision environment may occur (that is, when we cannot even assess probabilities for each possible outcome), we rely on three decision methods: Maximax A criterion that finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome. Maximin A criterion that finds an alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome. Equally likely A criterion that assigns equal probability to each state of nature. Maximax—this method finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome for every alternative.
First, we find the maximum outcome within every alternative, and then we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative with the highest possible gain, it has been called an “optimistic” decision criterion. 2. Maximin—this method finds the alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome for every alternative. First, we find the minimum outcome within every alternative, and then we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative that has the least possible loss, it has been called a “pessimistic” decision criterion. . Equally likely—this method finds the alternative with the highest average outcome. First, we calculate the average outcome for every alternative, which is the sum of all outcomes divided by the number of outcomes. We then pick the alternative with the maximum number. The equally likely approach assumes that each state of nature is equally likely to occur. Example A3 applies each of these approaches to the Getz Products Company. 1. Example A3 A decision table analysis under uncertainty Given Getz’s decision table of Example A2, determine the maximax, maximin, nd equally likely decision criteria (see Table A. 2). TABLE A. 2 I Decision Table for Decision Making under Uncertainty STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MARKET MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 MAXIMUM IN ROW $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 Maximax MINIMUM IN ROW $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 Maximin ROW AVERAGE $10,000 $40,000 $ 0 Equally likely ALTERNATIVES There are optimistic decision makers (“maximax”) and pessimistic ones (“maximin”). Maximax and maximin present best case–worst case planning scenarios. Construct large plant Construct small plant Do nothing
TYPES 1. 2. 3. OF D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G E N V I RO N M E N T S 677 The maximax choice is to construct a large plant. This is the maximum of the maximum number within each row, or alternative. The maximin choice is to do nothing. This is the maximum of the minimum number within each row, or alternative. The equally likely choice is to construct a small plant. This is the maximum of the average outcome of each alternative. This approach assumes that all outcomes for any alternative are equally likely. Decision Making Under Risk Expected monetary value (EMV)
The expected payout or value of a variable that has different possible states of nature, each with an associated probability. Decision making under risk, a more common occurrence, relies on probabilities. Several possible states of nature may occur, each with an assumed probability. The states of nature must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive and their probabilities must sum to 1. 2 Given a decision table with conditional values and probability assessments for all states of nature, we can determine the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative.
This figure represents the expected value or mean return for each alternative if we could repeat the decision a large number of times. The EMV for an alternative is the sum of all possible payoffs from the alternative, each weighted by the probability of that payoff occurring. EMV (Alternative i ) = ( Payoff of 1st state of nature) ? (Probability of 1st state of nature) + (Payoff of 2nd state of nature) ? (Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Payoff of last state of nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) Example A4 illustrates how to compute the maximum EMV. Example A4
Expected monetary value Excel OM Data File ModAEx4. xla Getz Products operations manager believes that the probability of a favorable market is exactly the same as that of an unfavorable market; that is, each state of nature has a . 50 chance of occurring. We can now determine the EMV for each alternative (see Table A. 3): 1. 2. 3. EMV(A1) = (. 5)($200,000) + (. 5)( $180,000) = $10,000 EMV(A2) = (. 5)($100,000) + (. 5)( $20,000) = $40,000 EMV(A3) = (. 5)($0) + (. 5)($0) = $0 The maximum EMV is seen in alternative A2. Thus, according to the EMV decision criterion, Getz would build the small facility. TABLE A. I Decision Table for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES Construct large plant (A1) Construct small plant (A2) Do nothing (A3) Probabilities STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORABLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 . 50 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 . 50 Decision Making Under Certainty Now suppose that the Getz operations manager has been approached by a marketing research firm that proposes to help him make the decision about whether to build the plant to produce storage sheds. The marketing researchers claim that their technical analysis will tell Getz with certainty whether the market is favorable for the proposed product.
In other words, it will change Getz’s environment from one of decision making under risk to one of decision making under certainty. This information could prevent Getz from making a very expensive mistake. The marketing research firm would charge Getz $65,000 for the information. What would you recommend? Should the operations manager hire the firm to make the study? Even if the information from the study is perfectly accurate, is it worth $65,000? What might it be worth? Although some of these questions are difficult to answer, 2To EVPI places an upper limit on what you should pay for information. eview these and other statistical terms, refer to the CD-ROM Tutorial 1, “Statistical Review for Managers. ” 678 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S determining the value of such perfect information can be very useful. It places an upper bound on what you would be willing to spend on information, such as that being sold by a marketing consultant. This is the concept of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), which we now introduce. Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) The difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk.
If a manager were able to determine which state of nature would occur, then he or she would know which decision to make. Once a manager knows which decision to make, the payoff increases because the payoff is now a certainty, not a probability. Because the payoff will increase with knowledge of which state of nature will occur, this knowledge has value. Therefore, we now look at how to determine the value of this information. We call this difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). EVPI = Expected value under certainty Maximum EMV
Expected value under certainty The expected (average) return if perfect information is available. To find the EVPI, we must first compute the expected value under certainty, which is the expected (average) return if we have perfect information before a decision has to be made. To calculate this value, we choose the best alternative for each state of nature and multiply its payoff times the probability of occurrence of that state of nature. Expected value under certainty = (Best outcome or consequence for 1st state of nature) ? (Probability of 1st state of nature) + (Best outcome for 2nd state of nature) ? Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Best outcome for last state of nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) In Example A5 we use the data and decision table from Example A4 to examine the expected value of perfect information. Example A5 Expected value of perfect information By referring back to Table A. 3, the Getz operations manager can calculate the maximum that he would pay for information—that is, the expected value of perfect information, or EVPI. He follows a two-stage process. First, the expected value under certainty is computed. Then, using this information, EVPI is calculated.
The procedure is outlined as follows: 1. The best outcome for the state of nature “favorable market” is “build a large facility” with a payoff of $200,000. The best outcome for the state of nature “unfavorable market” is “do nothing” with a payoff of $0. Expected value under certainty = ($200,000)(0. 50) + ($0)(0. 50) = $100,000. Thus, if we had perfect information, we would expect (on the average) $100,000 if the decision could be repeated many times. The maximum EMV is $40,000, which is the expected outcome without perfect information. Thus: EVPI = Expected value under certainty ? Maximum EMV = $100, 000 ? 40, 000 = $60, 000 In other words, the most Getz should be willing to pay for perfect information is $60,000. This conclusion, of course, is again based on the assumption that the probability of each state of nature is 0. 50. 2. DECISION TREES Decisions that lend themselves to display in a decision table also lend themselves to display in a decision tree. We will therefore analyze some decisions using decision trees. Although the use of a decision table is convenient in problems having one set of decisions and one set of states of nature, many problems include sequential decisions and states of nature.
When there are two or more sequential decisions, and later decisions are based on the outcome of prior ones, the decision tree approach becomes appropriate. A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of decision alternative and state of nature. Expected monetary value (EMV) is the most commonly used criterion for decision tree analysis. One of the first steps in such analysis is to graph the decision tree and to specify the monetary consequences of all outcomes for a particular problem.
Decision tree A graphical means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. DECISION TREES Decision tree software is a relatively new advance that permits users to solve decisionanalysis problems with flexibility, power, and ease. Programs such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree allow decision problems to be analyzed with less effort and in greater depth than ever before. Full-color presentations of the options open to managers always have impact. In this photo, wildcat drilling options are explored with DPL, a product of Syncopation Software. 679 Analyzing problems with decision trees involves five steps: 1. 2. . 4. 5. Define the problem. Structure or draw the decision tree. Assign probabilities to the states of nature. Estimate payoffs for each possible combination of decision alternatives and states of nature. Solve the problem by computing expected monetary values (EMV) for each state-of-nature node. This is done by working backward—that is, by starting at the right of the tree and working back to decision nodes on the left. Example A6 Solving a tree for EMV A completed and solved decision tree for Getz Products is presented in Figure A. 2. Note that the payoffs are placed at the right-hand side of each of the tree’s branches.
The probabilities (first used by Getz in Example A4) are placed in parentheses next to each state of nature. The expected monetary values for each state-ofnature node are then calculated and placed by their respective nodes. The EMV of the first node is $10,000. This represents the branch from the decision node to “construct a large plant. ” The EMV for node 2, to “construct a small plant,” is $40,000. The option of “doing nothing” has, of course, a payoff of $0. The branch leaving the decision node leading to the state-of-nature node with the highest EMV will be chosen. In Getz’s case, a small plant should be built.
EMV for node 1 = $10,000 = (. 5) ($200,000) + (. 5) (–$180,000) Payoffs Favorable market (. 5) $200,000 Co n ct stru e larg pla nt 1 Unfavorable market (. 5) Favorable market (. 5) 2 Unfavorable market (. 5) –$ 20,000 –$180,000 $100,000 Construct small plant Do no th in g EMV for node 2 = $40,000 = (. 5) ($100,000) + (. 5) (–$20,000) $0 FIGURE A. 2 I Completed and Solved Decision Tree for Getz Products 680 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S A More Complex Decision Tree There is a widespread use of decision trees beyond OM. Managers often appreciate a graphical display of a tough problem.
When a sequence of decisions must be made, decision trees are much more powerful tools than are decision tables. Let’s say that Getz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome of the first. Before deciding about building a new plant, Getz has the option of conducting its own marketing research survey, at a cost of $10,000. The information from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a small plant, or not to build at all. Getz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with perfect information, it may be extremely helpful.
Getz’s new decision tree is represented in Figure A. 3 of Example A7. Take a careful look at this more complex tree. Note that all possible outcomes and alternatives are included in their logical sequence. This procedure is one of the strengths of using decision trees. The manager is forced to examine all possible outcomes, including unfavorable ones. He or she is also forced to make decisions in a logical, sequential manner. Examining the tree in Figure A. 3, we see that Getz’s first decision point is whether to conduct the $10,000 market survey.
If it chooses not to do the study (the lower part of the tree), it can either build a large plant, a small plant, or no plant. This is Getz’s second decision point. If the decision is to build, the market will be either favorable (. 50 probability) or unfavorable (also . 50 probability). The payoffs for each of the possible consequences are listed along the right-hand side. As a matter of fact, this lower portion of Getz’s tree is identical to the simpler decision tree shown in Figure A. 2. Example A7 A decision tree with sequential decisions First Decision Point Second Decision Point $106,400 Favorable market (. 8) nt Payoffs $190,000 2 $49,200 1 Su re rve fav sult y (. 4 ora s 5) ble $106,400 la –$190,000 ep $63,600 Favorable market (. 78) arg L $ 90,000 Small 3 Unfavorable market(. 22) plant –$ 30,000 No pla nt –$ 10,000 Unfavorable market (. 22) vey –$87,400 Favorable market (. 27) pla nt $190,000 –$190,000 $ 90,000 –$ 30,000 –$ 10,000 y( rve Su ults e res ativ g ne t sur 4 Unfavorable market (. 73) (. 27) .55 arke $2,400 Con duct m L e arg $2,400 Favorable market 5 ) Small plant nt Unfavorable market (. 73) No pla $49,200 $40,000 FIGURE A. 3 I Getz Products Decision Tree with Probabilities and EMVs Shown
The short parallel lines mean “prune” that branch, as it is less favorable than another available option and may be dropped. Do t no co nd uc ts ur ve y $10,000 Favorable market pla nt (. 5) $200,000 –$180,000 $100,000 –$ 20,000 $0 6 Unfavorable market (. 5) (. 5) L e arg $40,000 Favorable market 7 Small plant nt Unfavorable market (. 5) No pla DECISION TREES You can reduce complexity by viewing and solving a number of smaller trees— start at the end branches of a large one. Take one decision at a time. 681 The upper part of Figure A. 3 reflects the decision to conduct the market survey.
State-of-nature node number 1 has 2 branches coming out of it. Let us say there is a 45% chance that the survey results will indicate a favorable market for the storage sheds. We also note that the probability is . 55 that the survey results will be negative. The rest of the probabilities shown in parentheses in Figure A. 3 are all conditional probabilities. For example, . 78 is the probability of a favorable market for the sheds given a favorable result from the market survey. Of course, you would expect to find a high probability of a favorable market given that the research indicated that the market was good.
Don’t forget, though: There is a chance that Getz’s $10,000 market survey did not result in perfect or even reliable information. Any market research study is subject to error. In this case, there remains a 22% chance that the market for sheds will be unfavorable given positive survey results. Likewise, we note that there is a 27% chance that the market for sheds will be favorable given negative survey results. The probability is much higher, . 73, that the market will actually be unfavorable given a negative survey. Finally, when we look to the payoff column in Figure A. , we see that $10,000—the cost of the marketing study—has been subtracted from each of the top 10 tree branches. Thus, a large plant constructed in a favorable market would normally net a $200,000 profit. Yet because the market study was conducted, this figure is reduced by $10,000. In the unfavorable case, the loss of $180,000 would increase to $190,000. Similarly, conducting the survey and building no plant now results in a $10,000 payoff. With all probabilities and payoffs specified, we can start calculating the expected monetary value of each branch.
We begin at the end or right-hand side of the decision tree and work back toward the origin. When we finish, the best decision will be known. 1. Given favorable survey results, EMV (node 2) = (. 78)($190, 000) + (. 22)( ? $190, 000) = $106, 400 EMV (node 3) = (. 78)($90, 000) + (. 22)( ? $30, 000) = $63,600 The EMV of no plant in this case is plant should be built. Given negative survey results, $10,000. Thus, if the survey results are favorable, a large 2. EMV (node 4) = (. 27)($190, 000) + (. 73)( ? $190, 000) = ? $87, 400 EMV (node 5) = (. 27)($90, 000) + (. 73)( ? $30, 000) = $2, 400 The EMV of no plant is again $10,000 for this branch.
Thus, given a negative survey result, Getz should build a small plant with an expected value of $2,400. Continuing on the upper part of the tree and moving backward, we compute the expected value of conducting the market survey. EMV(node 1) = (. 45)($106,400) + (. 55)($2,400) = $49,200 4. If the market survey is not conducted. EMV (node 6) = (. 50)($200, 000) + (. 50)( ? $180, 000) = $10, 000 EMV (node 7) = (. 50)($100, 000) + (. 50)( ? $20, 000) = $40, 000 The EMV of no plant is $0. Thus, building a small plant is the best choice, given the marketing research is not performed.
Because the expected monetary value of conducting the survey is $49,200—versus an EMV of $40,000 for not conducting the study—the best choice is to seek marketing information. If the survey results are favorable, Getz should build the large plant; if they are unfavorable, it should build the small plant. 3. 5. Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making Decision trees can also be a useful tool to aid ethical corporate decision making. The decision tree illustrated in Example A8, developed by Harvard Professor Constance Bagley, provides guidance as to how managers can both maximize shareholder value and behave ethically.
The tree can be applied to any action a company contemplates, whether it is expanding operations in a developing country or reducing a workforce at home. 682 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Smithson Corp. is opening a plant in Malaysia, a country with much less stringent environmental laws than the U. S. , its home nation. Smithson can save $18 million in building the manufacturing facility—and boost its profits—if it does not install pollution-control equipment that is mandated in the U. S. but not in Malaysia.
But Smithson also calculates that pollutants emitted from the plant, if unscrubbed, could damage the local fishing industry. This could cause a loss of millions of dollars in income as well as create health problems for local inhabitants. Example A8 Ethical decision making Action outcome Is it ethical? (Weigh the effect on employees, customers, suppliers, community versus shareholder benefit. ) Do it Ye s Ye No s Ye Is action legal? s Does action maximize company returns? Don’t do it No No Is it ethical not to take action? (Weigh the harm to shareholders versus benefits to other stakeholders. Ye s Don’t do it Do it, but notify appropriate parties Don’t do it No FIGURE A. 4 I Smithson’s Decision Tree for Ethical Dilemma Source: Modified from Constance E. Bagley, “The Ethical Leader’s Decision Tree,” Harvard Business Review (January–February 2003): 18–19. Figure A. 4 outlines the choices management can consider. For example, if in management’s best judgment the harm to the Malaysian community by building the plant will be greater than the loss in company returns, the response to the question “Is it ethical? ” will be no.
Now, say Smithson proposes building a somewhat different plant, one with pollution controls, despite a negative impact on company returns. That decision takes us to the branch “Is it ethical not to take action? ” If the answer (for whatever reason) is no, the decision tree suggests proceeding with the plant but notifying the Smithson Board, shareholders, and others about its impact. Ethical decisions can be quite complex: What happens, for example, if a company builds a polluting plant overseas, but this allows the company to sell a life-saving drug at a lower cost around the world?
Does a decision tree deal with all possible ethical dilemmas? No—but it does provide managers with a framework for examining those choices. SUMMARY This module examines two of the most widely used decision techniques—decision tables and decision trees. These techniques are especially useful for making decisions under risk. Many decisions in research and development, plant and equipment, and even new buildings and structures can be analyzed with these decision models. Problems in inventory control, aggregate planning, maintenance, scheduling, and production control are just a few other decision table and decision tree applications.
KEY TERMS Decision table (p. 675) Maximax (p. 676) Maximin (p. 676) Equally likely (p. 676) Expected monetary value (EMV) (p. 677) Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) (p. 678) Expected value under certainty (p. 678) Decision tree (p. 678) S O LV E D P RO B L E M S 683 USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS Analyzing decision tables is straightforward with Excel, Excel OM, and POM for Windows. When decision trees are involved, commercial packages such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree provide flexibility, power, and ease. POM for Windows will also analyze trees but does not have graphic capabilities.
Using Excel OM Excel OM allows decision makers to evaluate decisions quickly and to perform sensitivity analysis on the results. Program A. 1 uses the Getz data to illustrate input, output, and selected formulas needed to compute the EMV and EVPI values. Compute the EMV for each alternative using = SUMPRODUCT(B$7:C$7, B8:C8). = MIN(B8:C8) = MAX(B8:C8) Find the best outcome for each measure using = MAX(G8:G10). To calculate the EVPI, find the best outcome for each scenario. = MAX(B8:B10) = SUMPRODUCT(B$7:C$7, B14:C14) = E14 – E11 PROGRAM A. I Using Excel OM to Compute EMV and Other Measures for Getz Using POM for Windows POM for Windows can be used to calculate all of the information described in the decision tables and decision trees in this module. For details on how to use this software, please refer to Appendix IV. SOLVED PROBLEMS Solved Problem A. 1 Stella Yan Hua is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop on Fairbanks Avenue, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good mall that attracts students. Her options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all.
The market for a dress shop can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are . 2 for a good market, . 5 for an average market, and . 3 for a bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized or small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table. Building no shop at all yields no loss and no gain. What do you recommend? ALTERNATIVES Small shop Medium-sized shop No shop Probabilities GOOD MARKET ($) 75,000 100,000 0 . 20 AVERAGE MARKET ($) 25,000 35,000 0 . 50 BAD MARKET ($) 40,000 60,000 0 . 30 684 MODULE A Solution
D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The problem can be solved by computing the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative. EMV (Small shop) = (. 2)($75,000) + (. 5)($25,000) + (. 3)( $40,000) = $15,500 EMV (Medium-sized shop) = (. 2)($100,000) + (. 5)($35,000) + (. 3)( $60,000) = $19,500 EMV (No shop) = (. 2)($0) + (. 5)($0) + (. 3)($0) = $0 As you can see, the best decision is to build the medium-sized shop. The EMV for this alternative is $19,500. Solved Problem A. 2 Daily demand for cases of Tidy Bowl cleaner at Ravinder Nath’s Supermarket has always been 5, 6, or 7 cases.
Develop a decision tree that illustrates her decision alternatives as to whether to stock 5, 6, or 7 cases. Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases Solution The decision tree is shown in Figure A. 5. St oc k5 ca se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases oc k7 ca Stock 6 cases St se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases FIGURE A. 5 I Demand at Ravinder Nath’s Supermarket INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES Visit our Companion Web site or use your student CD-ROM to help with this material in this module. On Our Companion Web site, www. prenhall. com/heizer Self-Study Quizzes • Practice Problems • Internet Homework Problems • Internet Cases On Your Student CD-ROM • PowerPoint Lecture • Practice Problems • Excel OM • Excel OM Example Data File • POM for Windows DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 1. Identify the six steps in the decision process. 2. Give an example of a good decision you made that resulted in a bad outcome. Also give an example of a bad decision you made that had a good outcome. Why was each decision good or bad? 3. What is the equally likely decision model? 4. Discuss the differences between decision making under certainty, under risk, and under uncertainty. . What is a decision tree? P RO B L E M S 6. Explain how decision trees might be used in several of the 10 OM decisions. 7. What is the expected value of perfect information? 8. What is the expected value under certainty? 9. Identify the five steps in analyzing a problem using a decision tree. 10. Why are the maximax and maximin strategies considered to be optimistic and pessimistic, respectively? 685 11. The expected value criterion is considered to be the rational criterion on which to base a decision. Is this true? Is it rational to consider risk? 12.
When are decision trees most useful? PROBLEMS* P A. 1 a) b) c) Given the following conditional value table, determine the appropriate decision under uncertainty using: Maximax. Maximin. Equally likely. STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Build new plant Subcontract Overtime Do nothing VERY FAVORABLE MARKET $350,000 $180,000 $110,000 $ 0 AVERAGE MARKET $240,000 $ 90,000 $ 60,000 $ 0 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 20,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 P A. 2 Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Helms has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station.
Susan’s problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susan developed the following table: SIZE OF FIRST STATION Small Medium Large Very large GOOD MARKET ($) 50,000 80,000 100,000 300,000 FAIR MARKET ($) 20,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 POOR MARKET ($) 10,000 20,000 40,000 160,000 a) b) c) d) e) For example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will realize a profit of $50,000.
Develop a decision table for this decision. What is the maximax decision? What is the maximin decision? What is the equally likely decision? Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV. Clay Whybark, a soft-drink vendor at Hard Rock Cafe’s annual Rockfest, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd): STATES OF NATURE (DEMAND) ALTERNATIVES Large stock Average stock Small stock BIG $22,000 $14,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $12,000 $10,000 $ 8,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $4,000
P A. 3 If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a big demand, 0. 5 for an average demand, and 0. 2 for a small demand, determine the alternative that provides Clay Whybark the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). P A. 4 For Problem A. 3, compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). *Note: OM; and means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows; means the problem may be solved with Excel P means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows and/or Excel OM. 686 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S H. Weiss, Inc. is considering building a sensitive new airport scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0. 4 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss’s expected profit is $40,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $10,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000.
Determine the EMV of each decision. For Problem A. 5, compute the expected value of perfect information. The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and various levels of demand at Amber Gardner’s software firm: DEMAND LOW Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 $10,000 $ 5,000 $ 2,000 HIGH $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 P A. 5 P P A. 6 A. 7 a) b) c) The probability of low demand is 0. 4, whereas the probability of high demand is 0. 6. What is the highest possible expected monetary value? What is the expected value under certainty?
Calculate the expected value of perfect information for this situation. Leah Johnson, director of Legal Services of Brookline, wants to increase capacity to provide free legal advice but must decide whether to do so by hiring another full-time lawyer or by using part-time lawyers. The table below shows the expected costs of the two options for three possible demand levels: STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Hire full-time Hire part-time Probabilities LOW DEMAND $300 $ 0 . 2 MEDIUM DEMAND $500 $350 . 5 HIGH DEMAND $ 700 $1,000 . 3 P A. 8 Using expected value, what should Ms.
Johnson do? P A. 9 Chung Manufacturing is considering the introduction of a family of new products. Long-term demand for the product group is somewhat predictable, so the manufacturer must be concerned with the risk of choosing a process that is inappropriate. Chen Chung is VP of operations. He can choose among batch manufacturing or custom manufacturing, or he can invest in group technology. Chen won’t be able to forecast demand accurately until after he makes the process choice. Demand will be classified into four compartments: poor, fair, good, and excellent.
The table below indicates the payoffs (profits) associated with each process/demand combination, as well as the probabilities of each long-term demand level. POOR Probability Batch Custom Group technology a) b) . 1 $ 200,000 $ 100,000 $1,000,000 FAIR . 4 $1,000,000 $ 300,000 $ 500,000 GOOD . 3 $1,200,000 $ 700,000 $ 500,000 EXCELLENT . 2 $1,300,000 $ 800,000 $2,000,000 Based on expected value, what choice offers the greatest gain? What would Chen Chung be willing to pay for a forecast that would accurately determine the level of demand in the future?
Julie Resler’s company is considering expansion of its current facility to meet increasing demand. If demand is high in the future, a major expansion will result in an additional profit of $800,000, but if demand is low there will be a loss of $500,000. If demand is high, a minor expansion will result in an increase in profits of $200,000, but if demand is low, there will be a loss of $100,000. The company has the option of not expanding. If there is a 50% chance demand will be high, what should the company do to maximize long-run average profits? P A. 10 P RO B L E M S 87 P A. 11 The University of Dallas bookstore stocks textbooks in preparation for sales each semester. It normally relies on departmental forecasts and preregistration records to determine how many copies of a text are needed. Preregistration shows 90 operations management students enrolled, but bookstore manager Curtis Ketterman has second thoughts, based on his intuition and some historical evidence. Curtis believes that the distribution of sales may range from 70 to 90 units, according to the following probability model: Demand Probability 70 . 15 75 . 30 80 . 30 85 . 0 90 . 05 a) b) This textbook costs the bookstore $82 and sells for $112. Any unsold copies can be returned to the publisher, less a restocking fee and shipping, for a net refund of $36. Construct the table of conditional profits. How many copies should the bookstore stock to achieve highest expected value? Palmer Cheese Company is a small manufacturer of several different cheese products. One product is a cheese spread sold to retail outlets. Susan Palmer must decide how many cases of cheese spread to manufacture each month. The probability that demand will be 6 cases is . , for 7 cases it is . 3, for 8 cases it is . 5, and for 9 cases it is . 1. The cost of every case is $45, and the price Susan gets for each case is $95. Unfortunately, any cases not sold by the end of the month are of no value as a result of spoilage. How many cases should Susan manufacture each month? Ronald Lau, chief engineer at South Dakota Electronics, has to decide whether to build a new state-of-the-art processing facility. If the new facility works, the company could realize a profit of $200,000. If it fails, South Dakota Electronics could lose $180,000.
At this time, Lau estimates a 60% chance that the new process will fail. The other option is to build a pilot plant and then decide whether to build a complete facility. The pilot plant would cost $10,000 to build. Lau estimates a 50-50 chance that the pilot plant will work. If the pilot plant works, there is a 90% probability that the complete plant, if it is built, will also work. If the pilot plant does not work, there is only a 20% chance that the complete project (if it is constructed) will work. Lau faces a dilemma. Should he build the plant? Should he build the pilot project and then make a decision?
Help Lau by analyzing this problem. Karen Villagomez, president of Wright Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in the Ozarks. Her decision is summarized in the following table: ALTERNATIVES Build large plant Build small plant Don’t build Market probabilities FAVORABLE MARKET $400,000 $ 80,000 $ 0 0. 4 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 0. 6 P A. 12 A. 13 P A. 14 a) b) c) A. 15 Construct a decision tree. Determine the best strategy using expected monetary value (EMV). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?
Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Denver Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: PERCENT DEFECTIVE 1 3 5 PROBABILITY LOOMBA TECHNOLOGY . 70 . 20 . 10 PROBABILITY STEWART-DOUGLAS ENTERPRISES . 30 . 30 . 40 FOR FOR a) b) For example, the probability of getting a batch of tests that are 1% defective from Loomba Technology is . 70. Because Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order, this would mean that there is a . 7 probability of getting 100 defective tests out of the 10,000 tests if Loomba Technology is used to fill the order.
A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0. 50. Although the quality of the test sets of the second supplier, Stewart-Douglas Enterprises, is lower, it will sell an order of 10,000 test sets for $37 less than Loomba. Develop a decision tree. Which supplier should Kellogg use? 688 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Deborah Hollwager, a concessionaire for the Des Moines ballpark, has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd).
STATES OF NATURE (SIZE OF CROWD) ALTERNATIVES Large inventory Average inventory Small inventory LARGE $20,000 $15,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $10,000 $12,000 $ 6,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $5,000 P A. 16 a) b) If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a large crowd, 0. 5 for an average crowd, and 0. 2 for a small crowd, determine: The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). The expected value of perfect information (EVPI). Joseph Biggs owns his own sno-cone business and lives 30 miles from a California beach resort. The sale of sno-cones is highly dependent on his location and on the weather.
At the resort, his profit will be $120 per day in fair weather, $10 per day in bad weather. At home, his profit will be $70 in fair weather and $55 in bad weather. Assume that on any particular day, the weather service suggests a 40% chance of foul weather. Construct Joseph’s decision tree. What decision is recommended by the expected value criterion? Kenneth Boyer is considering opening a bicycle shop in North Chicago. Boyer enjoys biking, but this is to be a business endeavor from which he expects to make a living. He can open a small shop, a large shop, or no shop at all.
Because there will be a 5-year lease on the building that Boyer is thinking about using, he wants to make sure he makes the correct decision. Boyer is also thinking about hiring his old marketing professor to conduct a marketing research study to see if there is a market for his services. The results of such a study could be either favorable or unfavorable. Develop a decision tree for Boyer. Kenneth Boyer (of Problem A. 18) has done some analysis of his bicycle shop decision. If he builds a large shop, he will earn $60,000 if the market is favorable; he will lose $40,000 if the market is unfavorable.
A small shop will return a $30,000 profit with a favorable market and a $10,000 loss if the market is unfavorable. At the present time, he believes that there is a 50-50 chance of a favorable market. His former marketing professor, Y. L. Yang, will charge him $5,000 for the market research. He has estimated that there is a . 6 probability that the market survey will be favorable. Furthermore, there is a . 9 probability that the market will be favorable given a favorable outcome of the study. However, Yang has warned Boyer that there is a probability of only . 12 of a favorable market if the marketing research results are not favorable.
Expand the decision tree of Problem A. 18 to help Boyer decide what to do. Dick Holliday is not sure what he should do. He can build either a large video rental section or a small one in his drugstore. He can also gather additional information or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could suggest either a favorable or an unfavorable market, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather the information. Holliday believes that there is a 50-50 chance that the information will be favorable. If the rental market is favorable, Holliday will earn $15,000 with a large section or $5,000 with a small.
With an unfavorable video-rental market, however, Holliday could lose $20,000 with a large section or $10,000 with a small section. Without gathering additional information, Holliday estimates that the probability of a favorable rental market is . 7. A favorable report from the study would increase the probability of a favorable rental market to . 9. Furthermore, an unfavorable report from the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable rental market to . 4. Of course, Holliday could ignore these numbers and do nothing. What is your advice to Holliday? P A. 17 a) b) A. 18 A. 19 A. 20 A. 21 a) b) A. 22 Problem A. dealt with a decision facing Legal Services of Brookline. Using the data in that problem, provide: The appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities. The best alternative using expected monetary value (EMV). The city of Segovia is contemplating building a second airport to relieve congestion at the main airport and is considering two potential sites, X and Y. Hard Rock Hotels would like to purchase land to build a hotel at the new airport. The value of land has been rising in anticipation and is expected to skyrocket once the city decides between sites X and Y. Consequently, Hard Rock would like to purchase land now.
Hard Rock will sell the land if the city chooses not to locate the airport nearby. Hard Rock has four choices: (1) buy land at X, (2) buy land at Y, (3) buy land at both X and Y, or (4) do nothing. Hard Rock has collected the following data (which are in millions of euros): SITE X Current purchase price Profits if airport and hotel built at this site Sales price if airport not built at this site 27 45 9 SITE Y 15 30 6 a) b) Hard Rock determines there is a 45% chance the airport will be built at X (hence, a 55% chance it will be built at Y). Set up the decision table. What should Hard Rock decide to do to maximize total net profit?
C A S E S T U DY A. 23 689 Louisiana is busy designing new lottery “scratch-off” games. In the latest game, Bayou Boondoggle, the player is instructed to scratch off one spot: A, B, or C. A can reveal “Loser, ” “Win $1,” or “Win $50. ” B can reveal “Loser” or “Take a Second Chance. ” C can reveal “Loser” or “Win $500. ” On the second chance, the player is instructed to scratch off D or E. D can reveal “Loser” or “Win $1. ” E can reveal “Loser” or “Win $10. ” The probabilities at A are . 9, . 09, and . 01. The probabilities at B are . 8 and . 2. The probabilities at C are . 999 and . 001. The probabilities at D are . 5 and . 5.
Finally, the probabilities at E are . 95 and . 05. Draw the decision tree that represents this scenario. Use proper symbols and label all branches clearly. Calculate the expected value of this game. INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional homework problems: A. 24 through A. 31. CASE STUDY Tom Tucker’s Liver Transplant Tom Tucker, a robust 50-year-old executive living in the northern suburbs of St. Paul, has been diagnosed by a University of Minnesota internist as having a decaying liver. Although he is otherwise healthy, Tucker’s liver problem could prove fatal if left untreated.
Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likelihood of survival for a man of Tucker’s age and condition without surgery. However, based on her own experience and recent medical journal articles, the internist tells him that if he elects to avoid surgical treatment of the liver problem, chances of survival will be approximately as follows: only a 60% chance of living 1 year, a 20% chance of surviving for 2 years, a 10% chance for 5 years, and a 10% chance of living to age 58. She places his probability of survival beyond age 58 without a liver transplant to be extremely low.
The transplant operation, however, is a serious surgical procedure. Five percent of patients die during the operation or its recovery stage, with an additional 45% dying during the first year. Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and 8%, 5%, and 4% survive, respectively, for 15, 20, and 25 years. Discussion Questions 1. Do you think that Tucker should select the transplant operation? 2. What other factors might be considered? CASE STUDY Ski Right Corp. After retiring as a physician, Bob Guthrie became an avid downhill skier on the steep slopes of the Utah Rocky Mountains.
As an amateur inventor, Bob was always looking for something new. With the recent deaths of several celebrity skiers, Bob knew he could use his creative mind to make skiing safer and his bank account larger. He knew that many deaths on the slopes were caused by head injuries. Although ski helmets have been on the market for some time, most skiers consider them boring and basically ugly. As a physician, Bob knew that some type of new ski helmet was the answer. Bob’s biggest challenge was to invent a helmet that was attractive, safe, and fun to wear.
Multiple colors and using the latest fashion designs would be musts. After years of skiing, Bob knew that many skiers believe that how you look on the slopes is more important than how you ski. His helmets would have to look good and fit in with current fashion trends. But attractive helmets were not enough. Bob had to make the helmets fun and useful. The name of the new ski helmet, Ski Right, was sure to be a winner. If Bob could come up with a good idea, he believed that there was a 20% chance that the market for the Ski Right helmet would be excellent. The chance of a good market should be 40%.
Bob also knew that the market for his helmet could be only average (30% chance) or even poor (10% chance). The idea of how to make ski helmets fun and useful came to Bob on a gondola ride to the top of a mountain. A busy executive on the gondola ride was on his cell phone trying to complete a complicated merger. When the executive got off the gondola, he dropped the phone and it was crushed by the gondola mechanism. Bob decided that his new ski helmet would have a built-in cell phone and an AM/FM stereo radio. All the electronics could be operated by a control pad worn on a skier’s arm or leg.
Bob decided to try a small pilot project for Ski Right. He enjoyed being retired and didn’t want a failure to cause him to go back to work. After some research, Bob found Progressive Products (PP). The company was willing to be a partner in developing the Ski Right and sharing any profits. If the market was excellent, Bob would net $5,000 per month. With a good market, Bob would net $2,000. An average market would result in a loss of $2,000, and a poor market would mean Bob would be out $5,000 per month. Another option for Bob was to have Leadville Barts (LB) make the helmet.
The company had extensive experience in making bicycle helmets. Progressive would then take the helmets made by Leadville Barts and do the rest. Bob had a greater risk. He estimated that he could lose $10,000 per month in a poor market or $4,000 in an average market. A good market for Ski Right would result in $6,000 profit for Bob, and an excellent market would mean a $12,000 profit per month. (continued) 690 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Cellular to make the phones, and TalRad to make the AM/FM stereo radios. Bob could then hire some friends to assemble everything and market the finished
Ski Right helmets. With this final alternative, Bob could realize a net profit of $55,000 a month in an excellent market. Even if the market was just good, Bob would net $20,000. An average market, however, would mean a loss of $35,000. If the market was poor Bob would lose $60,000 per month. A third option for Bob was to use TalRad (TR), a radio company in Tallahassee, Florida. TalRad had extensive experience in making military radios. Leadville Barts could make the helmets, and Progressive Products could do the rest of production and distribution. Again, Bob would be taking on greater risk.
A poor market would mean a $15,000 loss per month, and an average market would mean a $10,000 loss. A good market would result in a net profit of $7,000 for Bob. An excellent market would return $13,000 per month. Bob could also have Celestial Cellular (CC) develop the cell phones. Thus, another option was to have Celestial make the phones and have Progressive do the rest of the production and distribution. Because the cell phone was the most expensive component of the helmet, Bob could lose $30,000 per month in a poor market. He could lose $20,000 in an average market.
If the market was good or excellent, Bob would see a net profit of $10,000 or $30,000 per month, respectively. Bob’s final option was to forget about Progressive Products entirely. He could use Leadville Barts to make the helmets, Celestial Discussion Questions 1. What do you recommend? 2. Compute the expected value of perfect information. 3. Was Bob completely logical in how he approached this decision problem? Source: B. Render, R. M. Stair, and M. Hanna, Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, N. J. : Prentice Hall (2006). Reprinted by permission of Prentice Hall, Inc.
ADDITIONAL CASE STUDIES See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional free case studies: • Arctic, Inc. : A refrigeration company has several major options with regard to capacity and expansion. • Toledo Leather Company: This firm is trying to select new equipment based on potential costs. BIBLIOGRAPHY Brown, R. V. “The State of the Art of Decision Analysis. ” Interfaces 22, 6 (November–December 1992): 5–14. Collin, Ian. “Scale Management and Risk Assessment for Deepwater Developments. ” World Oil 224, no. 5 (May 2003): 62. Hammond, J. S. , R.
L. Kenney, and H. Raiffa. “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making. ” 76, no. 5 Harvard Business Review (September–October 1998): 47–60. Jbuedj, C. “Decision Making under Conditions of Uncertainty. ” Journal of Financial Planning (October 1997): 84. Keefer, Donald L. “Balancing Drug Safety and Efficacy for a Go/NoGo Decision. ” Interfaces 34, no. 2 (March–April 2004): 113–116. Kirkwood, C. W. “An Overview of Methods for Applied Decision Analysis. ” Interfaces 22, 6 (November–December 1992): 28–39. Perdue, Robert K. , William J. McAllister, Peter V. King, and Bruce G. Berkey. Valuation of R and D Projects Using Options Pricing and Decision Analysis Models. ” Interfaces 29, 6 (November 1999): 57–74. Raiffa, H. Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Certainty. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley (1968). Render, B. , R. M. Stair, Jr. , and R. Balakrishnan. Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets. 2nd ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall (2006). Render, B. , R. M. Stair Jr. , and M. Hanna. Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall (2006). Schlaifer, R. Analysis of Decisions Under Certainty. New York: McGraw-Hill (1969).

Formalizing the Research Prospectus

By this point, your prospectus should be complete and should include revisions made based on feedback from your instructor. Submitting the prospectus will assist you and your instructor/chair in preparing a plan for the remainder of your dissertation phase.
General Guidelines:
Use the following information to ensure successful completion of the assignment:
· Ensure to follow the professor’s comments from your previous submission.
· Instructors will be using a grading rubric to grade the assignments. It is recommended that learners strictly follow the instructions for assignment criteria and expectations for successful completion of the assignment. 
· Doctoral learners are required to use APA style for their writing assignments. 
· You are required to submit this assignment to LopesWrite. Refer to the directions in the Student Success Center. Only Word documents can be submitted to LopesWrite.
Compile all of the revisions to your prospectus into a final and complete prospectus document using the most current version of the “Prospectus Template.” This includes completing Table 1 or Table 2 (whichever is applicable to the study methodology) in Appendix B of the prospectus template.
Create a table to hold the intended demographic information that will be collected in your study. Insert the completed table into the final prospectus as Appendix C.
Verify that revisions have been made according to the instructor/chair comments and rubric as well as the “Academic Quality Review (AQR) Prospectus Review Checklist.”

Usually, we do not include the actual name of the county or state. Just say mental health services in one county located in a southern state. You need to make sure you establish that this problem exists outside of this one county in Texas. You need to include the sample in the problem, purpose and RQs. Cite the theory you are using from the seminal source, which would be Bandura or Vygotsky. I provided a problem, purpose and RQ. You need at least 2 questions. See comments. 
Be sure and read about the data collection and management section criteria. What you are discussing in your answer belongs in the method and design and sources of data section. (Yes, I have the template memorized). 🙂 In the data collection section, you need to tell us each and every step that you will use to get site authorization and IRB approval, doing a field test of the interview guide, make initial contact with potential participants to share the purpose of the study and get informed consent, to collecting and preparing data for analysis. I would strongly recommend looking at other GCU dissertations. Start this section off by writing these steps off in number format… Then, remember back to when we were in school and wrote out how to make a peanut butter and jelly sandwich? Go through the steps yourself to see what is missing. After you get that down, then put in paragraph format. Often, as a chair, I have my learners keep this in number format (like the steps of a recipe) until we get it down pat. It is easier to provide feedback if it is numbered.